3 matchups that will decide Patriots vs. Dolphins

3 matchups that will decide Patriots vs. Dolphins

New England Patriots

Drake Maye might be targeting tight ends Hunter Henry and Eli Raridon early and often on Sunday.

Eli Raridon could be due for a big game against the Dolphins. Danielle Parhizkaran/The Boston Globe

After a “mini-bye” following a loss to the Bears last Thursday, the New England Patriots will look to get back on track with a road matchup against the Miami Dolphins on Sunday.​

In a familiar trend so far this season, injuries loom over Mike Vrabel’s club — especially if an ailing knee keeps A.J. Brown out in Florida.

New England may not need its full arsenal of offensive weapons to “Squish The Fish,” given that the Dolphins are entering Week 8 with a 1-5 record.​

But former BC head coach Jeff Hafley has his team seemingly trending in the right direction following a 28-25 win over the Jets, while Hard Rock Stadium has been a house of horrors at times for New England over the years.

While the Patriots are 39-21 against the Dolphins, they are 18-43 on the road against Miami — including 14-25 at Hard Rock Stadium.

Here are three matchups that will determine whether the Patriots improve to 5-3 this year.

Hunter Henry/Eli Raridon vs. Miami’s defense

Even if Brown doesn’t get the green light for Sunday’s game in Miami, Drake Maye, Josh McDaniels, and the rest of the Patriots’ offensive personnel might be licking their chops ahead of this matchup against a flawed Miami defense.

A rebuilding Miami team has labored all season against the pass, with the Dolphins ranking 30th in yards per pass attempt allowed (8.1) and passer rating allowed (116.8).

That should open the door for Maye to dole out plenty of damage down in South Florida.

Even with that costly red-zone interception against the Bears, Maye has been on a heater after a shaky start to the season, completing 67.2 percent of his passes and throwing 12 touchdowns and just two picks in his last four games.

Unfortunately, New England’s wideout depth chart might be paper thin, with DeMario Douglas, Efton Chism III, Kyle Williams, Ryan Miller, Chandler Brayboy, Cameron Dorner, and Kyle Dixon as the next men up if Brown can’t play.

This could mean a big afternoon for tight ends Hunter Henry and Eli Raridon on Sunday.

Such was the case last week against the Bears, with just 87 of Maye’s 321 passing yards reeled in by wide receivers.

But strong play from Raridon and Henry have kept New England’s offense humming right along. The duo combined for 29 catches, 361 receiving yards, and three touchdowns over the last four games.

Even with New England’s injury woes at the wideout position, Maye should be able to move the chains with a steady dose of targets toward his tight ends — especially with Miami relinquishing the fifth-most receptions and fourth-most receiving yards per game against TEs so far in 2026.

Ollie Gordon vs. Patriots defense

At first glance, the Patriots’ run defense has largely done its job this season. New England has yet to allow a single player to record at least 100 rushing yards against it this year — and has given up only 100 rushing yards to an opponent twice over seven games.

But New England’s defense is looking to flush away an ugly performance against the Bears last week. The Patriots were knocked for 17 missed tackles at Soldier Field during Thursday Night Football.

A healthy New England secondary would be a welcome sight, with Carlton Davis expected to return after missing the last three games with a neck injury.

Granted, Miami isn’t exactly equipped to test the likes of Davis, Christian Gonzalez, and Marcus Jones; Dolphins QB Malik Willis has completed 57.6 percent of his throws, with four touchdowns and four picks through six games.

But a flawed Dolphins team can still do damage on the ground, and New England’s defense needs to be dialed in to keep Miami off the field and get the ball back in Maye’s hands.

Willis has surpassed 30 rushing yards in four of his games so far this season, while Ollie Gordon has put together an impressive season as Miami’s de facto battering ram in the ground game. ​

Even with Miami playing without its most dynamic offensive weapon in De’Von Achane (torn ACL), the Dolphins have been very productive with their rushing attack as of late, ranking second in the NFL in rushing yards per game (131.5) over their last three games.

Gordon isn’t necessarily a burner, but he is a big body at 6-foot-2 and 222 pounds — and has surpassed 100 rushing yards in two of his last three games.

New England will need to call upon linebackers Robert Spillane and Christian Elliss to bottle up Gordon on Sunday, especially if he bursts through New England’s first line of defense.

​Chop Robinson vs. Morgan Moses

Miami’s path to a win likely revolves around following the Bears’ M.O. last week — moving the chains with a committed run game, killing the clock, and most importantly, keeping the ball away from Maye.

​On offense, the Patriots should be able to carve up Miami’s defense through the air — with most of the Dolphins’ strength resting in a run defense that, by and large, has been pedestrian so far this season (16th in rushing yards allowed per game).

The only scenario in which Maye doesn’t shred Miami on Sunday will likely revolve around how much the Dolphins can put Maye under duress.

The onus is going to fall on Miami edge rusher Chop Robinson to try to make life miserable for Maye.

Robinson has only two sacks so far this year, but he has 20 pressures as an explosive pass-rusher who blasts off the line of scrimmage. Robinson will likely get plenty of 1-on-1 matchups against right tackle Morgan Moses, who is still fighting through a nagging foot injury.

While Moses will have his hands full with Robinson, a Patriots O-line still lacking depth at guard will also need to account for ex-Patriot Josh Uche, who has 13 pressures this season with Miami.

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Conor Ryan is a staff writer covering the Bruins, Celtics, Patriots, and Red Sox for Boston.com, a role he has held since 2023.

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